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Dropbox- The Box is Half Full

Dropbox Inc., DBX reported earnings on Friday, February 20, 2020, not to be confused with BOX which reports earnings on February 26th, 2020, with revenues and stronger cash flows,   We started covering Dropbox Inc., in the 3rd quarter of 2019 because it’s in a space that we believe will see very good growth over the next five years. The stock is still slightly undervalued based on its intrinsic value by about ten percent with a fair value stock price of $24.71.

 The 4th quarter numbers were pretty good putting the company on track for stronger growth going forward. The company reported revenues of $443.5M but expected $446.00M a 0.60 percent increase. The company grew earnings to .16 per share versus expected earnings of .14 per share, up 13.19%. Based on my understanding of how the company was growing revenues and the context of the earnings call, this quarter was significant because of the quality of the earnings growth.

The company is looking at Non-GAAP and GAAP forward guidance of 18% – 19% and 13% -14% respectively.  We believe the company’s earnings growth is sustainable based on the expectation of higher gross and operating margins and is not sacrificing growth by de-focusing on average user growth generated through subscription revenues.

I think the company has a firmer grasp on its business plan, and we should see stronger, sustainable growth in the future. Is the stock a buy? We think so. However, be mindful. This stock is not a Wall Street darling like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix or Google so don’t expect huge volatility in the stock price or huge stock swings. It’s a slow burner. We own stock in Dropbox.

Disclosure: I am/we are long Dropbox. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it . I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.

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Arista Networks- Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop

By Rick Walter
02/14/20
4:00 PM

Cloud storage and solution companies are the next up and coming hot area for investment. Companies like Amazon and Microsoft are competing mightily for this business and winning. However, there are other smaller or mid-size players in the field that could also be huge winners in this growing, lucrative market.

I started following Arista Networks in the 3rd quarter of last year. Since that time the stock has fluctuated from a high of $249.49 on Sept 12, 2019, to a low of $185.30 on November 1, 2019. The stock since then has ground back up to the $240 range on February 12, 2020, only to fall back to the $218 price levels after earning announcements on February 13, 2020.

The numbers weren’t bad but they weren’t that good either. I listened in on the company’s webcast yesterday and I was not impressed with the presentation. The overall guidance for the upcoming first and second quarters for this year was very confusing. I couldn’t tell if the company was forecasting breakeven for the upcoming quarters, a slight loss, or a huge loss. Based on the previous 3rd quarter webcast last year, company officials reiterated that one of their major customers- (a cloud titan) who’s responsible for a good portion of their revenues, had not made a commitment or firm decision to continue to use their products and services going forward. Company officials said that they had to adjust to this uncertainty going forward. Fair enough.

However, in the fourth quarter, nothing was mentioned of this pending doom to the company’s revenue base and bottom-line. Instead, the company focused on collective doom stemming from the cloud industry itself. Huh! Analyst after analyst threw a multitude of questions that would or could shed light on the growth issues but were unable to pierce the cryptic responses from company officials.

This company initially fit our criteria for innovative product and services, consistent earnings per share growth and stable management with the ability to identify the risks in the markets and make prudent decisions to adjust to those risks. However, this company fails miserably in the management section. Just listen in on their earnings webcast and you will get an idea of what I am talking about. Is the stock a buy? We are uncertain, because no one could get a straight answer during the earnings call. Namely, “why is the company experiencing slower growth than most companies in one of the hottest growth markets today?”

We are holding off purchasing any more shares in this company until we can get better and clearer guidance. If management can’t give you a clear answer, then why should we or any other investor invest in the company?

We own shares of stock in Arista Networks.

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Cyberark’s Stock Price Collapses

By Rick Walter
Updated: 02/13/2020

Cyberark Software Ltd., CYBR stock cratered today after their earnings announcement. I listened in on the company’s webcast on Thursday and the presentation was pretty solid. There was nothing in the webcast that was materially incorrect or shockingly bad. The company reported solid numbers in revenues, gross margins, r & d, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expenses, yet the stock sunk like a stone in a sea of positive earnings announcements.
The company reported earnings per share of .97 per share versus expected fourth-quarter earnings per share of .81 per share, a 20% increase. Revenues came in at $129.66 million versus expected revenues of $126.67 million, 2.36%. Year over Year (Y/Y) revenues were up 27.72% with net income also up 88.39%.

From a valuation metric, the stock was fairly valued as of Wednesday’s price of $138.60. Today’s collapse puts the stock in undervalued territory by at least 10% based on current valuation computations.

We believe based on the line of questioning by analysts on the earnings webcast, that there may be some confusion on whether the company grew earnings per share and revenues by actually adding new customers or manipulated their numbers by reformulating or remixing the pricing of their existing product and product solutions to generate higher revenue fees thereby increasing fourth-quarter earnings per share and revenues.

Is the stock still a buy? We think so based on year over year numbers and because the stock fits our criteria for investment based on their innovative cyber-security products, consistent earnings per share growth and excellent risk management stewardship. However, proceed cautiously.

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The Rise of Pinterest

Rick Walter
Updated: 02/10/2020

Pinterest Logo

Finding and investing in companies with a proven and stable track record of growth is very difficult especially with startups. We select companies based on three criteria: innovation, earnings per share growth, and risk management. We believe that the best companies are leaders in these areas. How companies manage these areas over time determines how much or how large your investment can grow.

Pinterest Inc. PINS came to mind this week as a company that may do well over the long-term. The company reported better than expected earnings of .12 per share versus .08 per share, up 44% and higher revenues of $399.90 million versus expected $368.93 million, up 8.39%. This is impressive because the company just went public last year on April 18, 2019. In less than one year the company has evolved from test case into a real company that is growing market share and making money.
The stock is undervalued based on valuation metrics which suggests a fair value price of $35 per share. The stock closed at on $25.20 Friday February 9, 2020. The difference between the where the stock closed, and its fair value is approximately 24.5%. We believe that the company can easily close that gap because on the growth side the company provides users and marketers with an array of easy to use tools that facilitates taking ideas and concepts from just that to reality quickly and easily.

Although, Pinterest is not the only company that’s doing this; however they are at the forefront of providing the technology for users that’s growing revenues for the company. Secondly, the company is seeing surprisingly strong growth in the international market and management seems to have an intelligent grasp of the market and responds accordingly to the risks and uncertainty as the company grows. We think the company fits all three of our investment criteria and is a company to keep on your watch-list for future growth. Pinterest’s stock is just one of the stocks that we own in our portfolio.

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Broadcom continues to deliver!

By Rick Walter

Updated: 01/24/2020

Can Broadcom Inc. (symbol: AVGO) continue to deliver the goods? On December 18th, 2019, the company announced that they were looking to sell one of its wireless-chip units. The move would accelerate the company’s shift away from its roots as a semiconductor maker. According to some company officials, the unit could be worth up to $10 billion. I personally thought that the move generated a confusing long-term growth outlook for the company, because wireless chips have always been the backbone of the company’s core businesses. Selling-off one of the units that generate core revenues for the business, I believe, caught many investors and analysts by surprise. The company’s stock sank from a high of $320 a share to roughly $301 shortly thereafter. However, since we are not privy to the company’s long-term business strategy, certain business moves may at first glance seem odd and confusing to investors looking in. On January 23, 2020, the company recently announced a multi-year supply agreement with Apple Inc. AAPL to provide wireless components for Apple products into 2023, a deal that could generate billions of dollars- $15 billion in revenues. The announcement sent the stock roaring to $329 a share on Thursday January 23, 2020.

Our success as traders and advisors depends on companies like Broadcom. We look for companies that lead by innovation and consistently grow shareholder’s value. Suffice to say, that even though recent business moves by the company may have had investors like us scratching our heads, we still believe that Broadcom Inc. AVGO, still fits the bill of a company that can continue to grow earnings and deliver consistent returns to shareholders over the next five years which bodes well for higher trading profits and better returns on our client portfolios.

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Searching for Value

ConfusedBuying undervalued stocks in the markets can be a very good long-term investment strategy for many investors. However, the process can be very difficult sometimes and near impossible for the average investor. Meaning an investor that does not invest on a daily or weekly basis but who may own a 401k, IRA, Roth at their […]
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Wrapping up the 2019 Tax Season

It’s been a tough 2019 tax season. The recent changes in federal tax laws made this tax season more difficult than usual. One of the biggest challenges has been determining what a business or individual could take as a deduction or ordinary and necessary tax expense. For example, interest paid on home equity loans may or may not be deductible under the new tax laws of 2017. In some states, this valuable deduction is no longer a tax benefit for many taxpayers.

“The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, enacted Dec. 22, suspends from 2018 until 2026 the deduction for interest paid on home equity loans and lines of credit, unless they are used to buy, build or substantially improve the taxpayer’s home that secures the loan” (IRS.gov n.p.).

Although the intent of the law is clear, application could cause some confusion by homeowners that have refinanced their home mortgage many times over before passage of the new tax law. For complete guidance on how to calculate the correct interest rate for home mortgages, try IRS Publication 936, Mortgage Interest Deduction or submit our secure contact form with your specific tax question today.

Source: IRS.Gov

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Volatile Week Ahead!

1/28/2019 It looks like it is going to be a volatile week. There’s lots on the table to consider. Today marks the start of the IRS e-filing season and what may turn out to be a very tough month for the IRS. We are seeing many reports suggesting that parts of the agency may still […]
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